A Brief Analysis Of The Irish Times Poll

It's still all to play for!

The Irish Times has published the first poll of the campaign, showing GE '24 as a race tighter than a Cavan man’s wallet. Simon Harris and Fine Gael remain in poll position with 25% party support and 50% satisfaction with the Taoiseach. Despite the by now traditional FG opening campaign misstep—this time Michael O’Leary’s comments about teachers—Fine Gael HQ will be satisfied. Harris’ personal popularity remains key, with a leader-centric “presidential” campaign focused on the “new energy” the Taoiseach hopes to embody. This strategy aims to counter the anti-incumbent sentiment sweeping democracies globally this year.  

Fianna Fáil and Micheál Martin are steady at 45% satisfaction and 19% voting intention. Fianna Fáil will bank on their strong ground game and Fine Gael transfers to outperform these numbers when it comes to bums on seats.

An overwhelmingly dominant narrative for the campaign hasn’t emerged yet, Sinn Féin are down a point to 19%, which may be viewed as an opportunity. If …